The Brooklyn Nets are not Contenders

The Brooklyn Nets aren’t ready to compete yet. I know that’s not the narrative you’re going to be hearing on ESPN or the New York area as the media tries to milk this Brooklyn-Manhattan rivalry as much as humanly possibly, but it’s the truth. I live 5 minutes from the Barclay Center and as much as I’d love to stroll down Atlantic Avenue and watch a contender play, I just don’t see it happening. This team quite frankly has a lot of holes and relies on stars I’m not totally sold on.

Deron Williams - Superstar?

This is a team that is going to be as successful as Deron Williams makes them and I’m just not sure how successful that is.  Eclipsed by the inconsistent season that Carmelo Anthony had across the river was the poor season that Deron Williams had. To Williams defense the Nets were atrocious and really put nothing around him outside of a mid-season trade that gave up their lottery 1^st round pick for Gerald Wallace. While Williams stat line looks as good as ever at 21 PPG – 8.7 APG – 3.3 RPG – 1.2 SPG, he did it while shooting the most he’s ever shot in his career 17.5 FGA while shooting .407% from the field.

Those aren’t very efficient numbers and Williams’ is a .455% shooter from the floor in his career so I would expect him to shoot more efficiently next season. This doesn’t mean there isn’t reason for concern though because what this shows is that when Williams has to carry the load, he's not as effective. He also has not been nearly as efficient as he was in Utah since he’s been a Net. Considering Williams is most certainly Brooklyn’s crunch time scorer, this is something we might be reminded of throughout the year.

One thing completely ignored about Deron Williams is his lack of initiative to play defense. While he certainly has the big lengthy frame to defend pretty much any point guard in the NBA he sometimes lacks effort to get through screens and just plays rather lethargic.[1] Notably he defended Jeremy Lin when “Linsanity” broke out by allowing Lin to get to the basket at will scoring 25 points on .526% shooting. Williams did torch Lin the next time the two met for 38 points but he still allowed Lin to score 21. Mario Chalmers absolutely shut down Lin when the Knicks played against the Heat so I'm not sure what that says for Williams' defensive ability. 

It also has to be taken into account that Williams had a falling out with legendary coach Jerry Sloan in Utah and hasn't always been the most agreeable guy. I have to think that Williams re-signed with the Nets in some kind of promise that he'd be playing with not just Joe Johnson, but Dwight Howard. How will he react to Howard not becoming a Net and how will he react if this team struggles to make the playoffs?

I really like Williams and he’s a great player to build a franchise around but I’m not sold on him being able to get the better of James, Wade, Rose, Anthony, Rondo or even Pierce at the end of a game. Until he proves that he can do that, the Nets are missing a big component in what it takes to win an NBA title. For a guy who's supposed to be a superstar, when's the last relevant basketball moment of his you remember?

Joe Johnson - Right Hand Man? 

Luckily for Williams his supporting cast should be quite a bit better than what he was dealing with last season. This is in part to the Net’s big trade acquisition of Joe Johnson. Johnson is a good and sometimes great shooting guard and will definitely open the floor for Williams with his solid outside shooting. Johnson has incredibly solid career numbers at 17.8 PPG – 4.4 APG – 4.2 RPG on .444% shooting from the field. He’s also a career .368% 3-point shooter, so that should help spread the court for Williams quite a bit.

Johnson’s downside mostly comes with his defense, age and contract. He’s 30 and if you’ve watched him play the last few years he appears to be declining rather than getting any better. Gone are the days of him averaging over 20 points a game and the Nets have him signed until he’s 34, when I don’t really know if he’ll still be the same kind of productive player. His contract is also absolutely ridiculous at almost 90 million over 4 years, including the last 2 years at 23 and 25 million. Joe Johnson is a good player but he’s simply not worth that kind of money.

The Nets acquired Johnson to win now but I’m just not sure if he brings the intensity on defense to win. I certainly don’t trust Johnson guarding Wade throughout a game and if you’re trying to win the championship in the East, this is something you’re going to have to do. He’s also one of those players whose attitude on the court never seems to match what’s going on in the game. Ask any Hawks fan you can find about him and you’ll see they mostly had an issue with his miserable looking facial expressions and body language.[2]


Maybe Joe Johnson will be a suitable side kick for Deron Williams but he's in no way shape or form a superstar. His track record with the Hawks certainly shows that he can't lead a team on a playoff run or put people in the seats, so why exactly did the Nets trade for him? He's your classic overpaid B level superstar. Joe Johnson's not a bad player but in similar fashion to Williams, can you remember one relevant basketball moment Joe Johnson's has had his entire career? It's not a good sign when your two highest paid players and "superstars" haven't been relevant in years.


Brook Lopez and Gerald Wallace - What will they give you?

If the Nets stand any chance to contend next year they’ll certainly need big years from the previously mentioned Deron Williams and Joe Johnson, but also from their young recently re-signed center, Brook Lopez. Lopez has tremendous upside being a 24 year old 7 footer with the career stat line of 17.4 PPG – 7.5 RPG – 1.6 BPG. He can score, he’s a willing passer and it’s hard not to love everything you see out of him on the offensive end. He might be the most skilled offensive center in the game outside of Andrew Bynum and that’s saying something. Despite this, he’s been relatively forgotten in the Dwight Howard madness and because he missed all but 12 games last year with a broken ankle.

The question surrounding Brook Lopez is that while he gives you a ton of offense and can block some shots on defense, can he rebound or be the defensive enforcer in the middle like a Dwight Howard or Tyson Chandler? In today’s NBA, I would argue that these are much more important than being a productive offensive center. While he does block a few shots, he doesn’t really alter the way offenses attack you. When you have to find a way to defend guys who are prolific drivers like the East has, this could be a problem. He’s also been criticized in the past of being a bit soft and a nice guy, I never like to hear that regarding 7 footers.

While Lopez’s low career rebounding totals and questions on defense are certainly huge questions, it’s hard to argue he’s not among the top 5 centers in the league. Is that worth the 60 million dollar max contract he just received? We’ll have to wait and see but the Nets contention status is definitely going to have a lot to do with Lopez’s development this year. This is especially true because of the lack of front line depth the Nets have going into this year.

The Nets gave up their lottery pick in the NBA Draft to acquire Gerald Wallace from the Trail Blazers last year. They then went on to sign Wallace to a 4 year 40 million dollar deal making him a cornerstone of their team for years to come. Wallace had been a consistently underrated player for the Bobcats for years giving them elite defense from the 3-4 positions. Wallace can also score and his career line looks like 13.5 PPG – 2.1 APG – 6.3 RPG – 1.5 SPG.

While I’ve always found Gerald Wallace to be one of my favorite hidden gems in the NBA, he’s sadly on the downside of his career.  Wallace used to be one of the most athletic players in the NBA and entering his 12^th season in the NBA this athleticism is fading fast. He is only 29 but he’s been in the league forever and wasted his extremely athletic years playing for the Bobcats and not a contending team. Wallace is still an incredibly useful player capable of guarding bigger 3’s and pretty much any 4 but with him losing that athleticism, he’s really not an elite defender anymore.

Wallace has always struggled with his outside shot and has an awful shooting form that will allow defenses to really play off him and towards Williams, Johnson, and Lopez. While he will give you a big plus on the boards and on defense he might really hurt the Nets offensive efficiency, as teams will definitely live with Wallace trying to shoot jumpers. He also absolutely could not guard Carmelo Anthony whatsoever when the two teams met in April, which is a big reason why the Nets brought him on board. If he can’t guard Anthony what chance does he have to match up with Lebron James? Wallace is still a versatile 3-4 who can match up with a lot of guys but his days of guarding elite 3’s are behind him and that is potentially a huge issue for the Nets.

Wallace and Brook Lopez will be expected to have huge seasons in order for the Nets to be successful and just like their "superstar" teammates have not played relevant minutes in the NBA. I'm not just sure what you're going to get out of either of those players and that's going to be a huge problem for a team looking to contend this year.

And then there's the rest...

Those are the 4 players on the Nets who you can pencil in right now as starters. The remaining players on their roster are Mirza Teletovic, Reggie Evans, Jerry Stackhouse, MarShon Brooks, and Tyshawn Taylor. Obviously, the Nets may also re-sign Kris Humphries and will most definitely try to bring in some more pieces. MarShon Brooks is looking like he will end up somewhere else and there’s not any room for him at shooting guard with Joe Johnson stationed there for the next 4 years.

I’m not sure what Brooklyn is going to get out of Mirza Teletovic as he has really good numbers playing for his Bosnian team but he seems as a pretty unknown commodity at this point. Is he power forward or a small forward? He averaged 6 rebounds in Europe last year so I doubt he’s going to help with that need. At 3 years 15 million the Nets must love what they see in him and he’s a real wild card going into this season. It’s tough for me to say he will be a key piece to their team this year though when he hasn’t played a minute in the NBA yet.

The Nets have a pretty good foundation of players as of now but this team is not a contender yet. I don’t think Reggie Evans and Brook Lopez are scaring anyone from the paint and that is probably the biggest issue when you have Deron Williams and Joe Johnson defending opposing teams guards. Their bench is pretty much an unknown quantity at this point but as the Knicks found out with Jeremy Lin and Steve Novak, you can find some gems on the waiver wire.

Brooklyn still needs more size, rebounding, defense and depth at all positions really. MarShon Brooks looks like he could real in some quality pieces and there’s always the chance of picking someone up around the trade deadline, so this team is a work in progress. They also need ensure they get someone who can handle the ball when Williams is resting or they’re going to run him into the ground trying to make the playoffs.

So, what can we expect?

This is a team that is going to be better than the 22-44 team last year, but it depends on what they do from here before we determine by how much. Even if they do manage to solidify their bench and pick up some size and rebounding I can’t put them in the upper tier of the Eastern Conference. They have too many holes, unproven stars, and have to deal with trying to gel after having their roster completely overturned.

The Nets have failed to improve enough for the window they have on Joe Johnson and Gerald Wallace’s effectiveness. They’re locked in a path where I can’t say the ceiling on this team is much higher than the 2^nd round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Unless they are able to pull of something dramatic with their remaining pieces, I think you’re going to see the Nets have a very similar season to what the Knicks had last year or maybe worse.

So are the Brooklyn Nets close to becoming contender this year? As much as I'd like them to be, I just can’t say I like the outlook of this franchise because they put a ton of weight in Joe Johnson being a 2^nd superstar. They just need a tremendous effort from him this year and I don’t think you’re going to see him raise his level of play, because he's just not a superstar. Outside of the holes I've mentioned, Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Brook Lopez, and Gerald Wallace need to shore up the holes in their games and that’s not something you can count on. The Nets will also have just about no flexibility going into the future outside of whatever MarShon Brooks can get them in a trade. They have made some bold moves so far this offseason but I don’t think it’s in the right direction and ultimately; I don’t think they're even close to becoming a contender.

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[1] A nice little compilation of Williams’ defensive woes

[2] Just look at his ESPN photo. This is pretty much what he looks like all the time.