Monday, July 30, 2012

How much is Josh Beckett worth to the Red Sox?


According to multiple sources the Red Sox are looking to dump Josh Beckett before the trade deadline on Tuesday. How much have things changed for Beckett in Boston that the Red Sox are just looking to dump Beckett and his remaining 35 million dollars? Beckett is not having a great year  - 4.57 ERA, 1.27 WHIP,  6.81 K/9,  .9 WAR - but he is still an above average pitcher. While his numbers are well below his career averages, Beckett’s WAR still remains the best among the Red Sox starting pitchers.

I rarely buy into baseball clubhouse stability and moods, but how toxic is Josh Beckett to the Red Sox’s clubhouse if they’re going to dump their highest WAR starting pitcher? This is a team 23rd in ERA and 25th in quality starts and they’re going to dump their most productive pitcher this season to this point? That says something about where the relationship between Josh Beckett and the Red Sox management is right now.

I’ve been saying all along that I don’t understand what the point of trading Beckett or Lester is right now. Even through their struggles I have more faith in them bouncing back than calling up some random farm pitcher to replace them. Especially in Lester’s case, we all know he is not a 5.47 ERA and -.8 WAR pitcher. Beckett on the other hand is now 32, and been on the decline for a few years now. I’m not sure what he has left in the tank. Despite saying that, unless Beckett is a complete and total detriment to everyone around him, I don’t see the point of trading him while his value is this low.

It is hard to imagine a scenario where the Red Sox actually get a team to give them anyone of value for Beckett. The Red Sox will probably be forced to eat a lot of the money they owe him, similarly to what the Yankees decided to do with A.J. Burnett last offseason with the Pirates. After the struggles A.J. Burnett had the last few season with the Yankees did you ever expect him and Josh Beckett to have the same type of career arc?

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This earned Beckett an overpriced contract extension

This doesn’t seem like something the Red Sox should do unless they can get someone to outright take the rest of Beckett’s deal. If I’m a GM of a contending team right now I am not trading for a guy on the downside of his career who the team is dumping because he’s a problem in the clubhouse. The Red Sox are probably just testing out the market right now in case there’s a GM who still believes Beckett could be their 2-3 starter in the playoffs, but I can’t see there being anyone who still thinks that.

So the question is, how much is Josh Beckett worth to the Red Sox? Do they want to pay a fraction of what they owe him to pitch somewhere else or do they keep him and continue to overpay him? If they are trying to contend this year, trading away their top WAR starting pitcher while having absolutely no pitching depth, doesn’t seem like a great way to do it. Things have clearly reached a point where the Red Sox have had enough of Beckett, so how does he react the rest of the year if they don’t move him? The Red Sox now might just have to trade him at this point even if it isn’t what’s best for their contending chances.

For a team with the kind of talent that the Red Sox have, the past 3 years have been just been one ridiculous situation after another. Now there’s this situation where if they trade Beckett away they’ll be trading away their best pitcher and if they don’t, they can’t move on from his clubhouse issues. If they trade him it’ll also be sending a white flag to the rest of the team that they're not trying to compete this year. At this point I think Red Sox fans just want him out of town and to be done with him. I for one can’t blame them. 

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